Weekend News’ dire prediction for climate negotiations confirmed last week at Carbon Show
Posted on 05. Oct, 2009 by annied in climate change
London– In case you missed it (but you couldn’t have) world leaders have declared they expect nothing from the negotiations at Copenhagen in December. Yvo de Boer said it at Bangkok at the weekend. David Miliband on EurActiv.com was concerned. Then there was the joint statement from the head of the IPCC, Pachauri and the head of the Centre for American Progress, Podesta. And then the news that Bangkok talks have stalled on finance issues and Obama’s top energy adviser says no climate change bill before December. Nobody is expecting action at Copenhagen.
Last week your bloggess attended the Carbon Show in London where there were a plethora of carbon trading firms, green business, green energy, and green government agencies present. In several seminar sessions the presenters expressed extreme pessimism at the prospects for a new agreement outcome at Copenhagen. A few seemed to think the best outcome would be an extension of the Kyoto protocol. In one session the presenter polled the audience: “how many of you here think that Copenhagen will end in a new treaty.” Three hands went up in room of around 80 people. This is by no means a scientific survey, but it gives you a pretty good idea of the feeling of participants in the carbon industry.
In fact, the only ones who still seem to be optimistic are the climate campaigners. But that’s their job.
Or is there something else going on here, rather than politicians pre-excusing themselves, could everybody be playing “bad cop?” It’s possible. Consider: the responsibility for the dire circumstances in which we find ourselves, the increasing rate at which the planet is warming (and I’m not talking about that Met Office study, rather the shipping lane now opened through the arctic) is largely the responsibility of the developed world. What’s at stake for them is nothing less (melodramatic music please) than their future economic growth. Someone made the point recently (can’t remember who) that governments cannot campaign on “I’m sorry but you can’t aspire to your parents’ middle class lifestyle.” No developed country has actually stood up and said, “Yeah, we f***ed up and we’re sorry.” Instead there are talks of mitigation, adaptation, intellectual property rights, and carbon taxes.
What’s at stake for countries in the global South is nothing short of their future economic development. As a result, they are holding out for everything they can get– the most equal intellectual property rights deals, the most aid money. Their populations will suffer first and hardest. So, no one can appear to give too much too quickly, on either side.
The question is this: have talks stalled, or there’s too much at stake for anybody to give an inch before the final meeting? Agus Sari is the Director of EcoSecurities Indonesia, and an advisor to the Indonesian Environment Minister. He is also @gusgoose and @iklimkarbon on Twitter. Here’s what he’s had to say when I asked him if the negotiations are as bad as they seem:
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Update 5 Oct 19.15 GMT: The Daily Kos has this commentary on politics at the Cop15 negotiations. Specifically how Obama will outfox the Republicans and push a climate bill through. I hope he’s right.